Since I'm thinking about stuff, I'll make a prediction. It is fairly vague, but I think cuts to the crux of the trends of seen on the internet. In ten or fifteen years? Everybody will have a tablet, but only some people will have a laptop. Sounds like a no-brainer, but I'll go the extra yard & speculate on the why. See, a tablet-- your iPads or whatever-- allow easy consumption. Browsing, lurking, all those things are easily done with the swipe of a finger. Laptops-- it isn't about processing or power or memory, nothing like that. I mean, we can reasonably assume all that stuff will get smaller & cheaper. No, I think the defining feature of a laptop is a keyboard. See, that is I think the crux of the thing. We are all fresh faced on the internet, but I think all us optimists are starting to sober up. "Information wants to be free" & "the Information Revolution will democratize everything" are so naive in hind-sight. Of course everything is a democracy. It already was, it always has been, & people vote that they wanted to be fat, stupid & comfortable. I think the best we can hope for is that the margins will be wider than they've been. Hence-- the keyboard. I mean, lets talk about the second smallest parcel of internet participation-- the comment. Smallest is "like" or "+1" which I'm actually not opposed to, but put that aside. Comments are easy, quick, & cost nothing...but most people don't. I'm constantly reminded of this when people say "I see you comment everywhere!" Really? I just...like, say what I'm thinking & contribute to the dialogue of the internet. Isn't that how it works? Not for most people. Most people say nothing, which is crazy to me. There is micro-blogging-- Twitter, status updates, whatever-- which you can do fine on a tablet. Like "+1" style features, this is good, I'm all for it, but it doesn't change the crux-- which is medium- & long-form participation. Dear every single blogger: you are the best. Doesn't matter what anyone says; let 'em complain that your blog is too boring, or all photos, or only about comics & role-playing games, or too much poetry or whatever. You add to the sum total of art & information, & that is wonderful. Most people? Don't. & that-- that is the heart of the matter. In the future, most people won't need keyboards. All you need to be a consumer & a purchaser is to be able to point at a picture of what you want. It isn't the Orwellian future we should be worried about; it is the Huxleyian future. Not Newspeak but Soma. In a decade or so, the keyboard will be the sign of somebody who cares-- an object of mild derision for the rest & a symbol of pride for the few.
